Yes Virgina, There Is A Veep

The Vice President selection is usually agonized over by Democrats, while Republicans-- correctly--don't seem to wring their hands too much. VP choices rarely make a difference, however, 1960, 1976 and 1980 are the exceptions. In each case the party nominated a candidate either not well known to the country (Kennedy, Carter) or one who had some lingering questions (Reagan was thought to be too hawkish, ready scary). The presidential candidates in each case ended up making what turned out to be solid choices, settling on the familiar and mainstream for their second spots. Kennedy's controversial choice of Lyndon Johnson meant that the Dems would hold what was then the "Solid (Democratic) South," especially Texas, paving the way for a narrow popular vote win and a comfortable margin in the Electoral College. A heretofore unknown southerner Jimmy Carter needed an acceptable party regular like Walter Mondale to allay fears among northern liberals in 1976. The Dems won closely in the popular and electoral vote, holding the liberal bastions plus carrying Ohio and Florida. Though Ronald Reagan won a landslide in 1980, the election was essentially even most of the way. His pick of former rival George Bush played well with the party faithful, and in those years Bush I was seen as a moderate Republican by much of the electorate. 2008 presents the Democratic candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, with a strong bench of Dem officeholders. Which brings us to Virgina, where they have--count 'em--three: first term Sen. Jim Webb, current Gov. Tim Kaine and former Gov. Mark Warner, currently a heavy favorite to be elected to the US Senate. All three are popular in a state that is turning from red to blue. Conservative ideologue George Will and Time's James Carney had it right this morning on ABC 's THIS WEEK WITH GEORGE STEPHANOPOLUS. If Obama chooses any of the three, Virginia is likely to go Democratic for the first time since 1964. Why? Because it would mean the Virginia presidential ballot in November would have on it Obama at the top, a Virginian in the second spot as Veep and Warner as the new triumphant Senator. All have been successful statewide recently in Virginia: Obama with a strong primary vote this year over Hillary Clinton; Webb elected in'06, taking down conservative icon Sen. George Allen; and Kaine elected as Warner's successor in '05. If Obama's people look closely at the electoral map, they will see the inevitable math, which sets up a short, but narrow, path to victory. For a fresh, charismatic, anti-war Dem like Obama, with his pull on millions of new voters, duplicating John Kerry's electoral total should not be difficult. Add Virginia's 13 electoral votes and you do have enough--though barely. Then, add Iowa (7), where the Dems lost narrowly to Bush II in '04 and where Obama won a smashing primary victory, you would have 20 electoral votes, putting Sen. Obama 8 over the 270 minimum. That's not counting many other states that are 50-50 to go blue this year with Obama leading a ticket backed by his fund raising machine: Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5) and Nevada (5). Under the Virginia scenario the Republicans and John McCain could win win Ohio and Florida, certainly no sure thing, and still be short. There are other suddenly competitive states that Democratic presidential candidates rarely ventured into in past elections. However, '08 is different with Obama looking at Georgia (15) (there is said to be 600,000 unregistered African American voters) and North Carolina (15) where he won big in the primary and possibly Missouri. Getting back to the Virginia abundance of riches: all three--Webb, Warner and Kaine- are good campaigners and would look good on an Obama ticket. Webb and Warner are the best known. Democrats in Virginia would have to find subsitute candidates in Warner's Senate race or to replace Webb, if he is elevated to the Vice Presidency. By no means an insurmountable problem. Webb might end up being the best bet for Democrats. He's a former Reagan Sec. of Navy with a military background, a moderate, well spoken and highly literate. Democrats have to stay away from the charades that were a part of past VP searches conducted by the Mondale and Dukakis campaigns. The map and the math are right in front of Obama, who may be surging now and about to take off in the polls.